In 2010, STRATFOR believes that stand-off in the Caucasus will set deeply in
“Russia is ready to counter Turkey again should it try to increase its presence in the Caucasus”
17:03 / 15.01.2010 The year 2009 was incredibly interesting in the Caucasus for a number of reasons. Though much of the world’s attention was invested in watching the fallout from the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, a status-quo has set in between Moscow and Tbilisi. But it was the developments between Turkey and Russia that give signs of trends to come.
STRATFOR has forecast that in the next decade that Turkey will return to being one of the global powers with its key geographic position, strong economy and consolidated government. Currently, a transformation is taking place in Turkey in which Ankara is testing out its influence in a number of regions: Central Asia, Southeastern Europe, the Middle East and the Caucasus.
It is in the Caucasus that Turkey was expected to move first and its attempt to change its relationship with Armenia was a bold choice for a first step, but was encouraged by Russia to do so. Russia has been watching the changes taking place in Turkey in recent years and planned to take advantage of a stronger Turkey in two ways: to create a closer relationship with the budding regional power of Turkey and also to use Turkey’s resurgence to tie certain states (Armenia and Azerbaijan) in the Caucasus more to Russia.
This is not to say that Russia designed 2009’s events for all parties, but instead set a series of events in motion that worked all out to Russia’s advantage.
Turkey was testing to see if its relationship—the so-called bonds of brotherhood—with Azerbaijan was solid enough that it could expand its influence in the Caucasus and form solid ties with Armenia. Turkey misjudged and Russia took advantage. Russia encouraged Turkey to restore ties with Armenia and mediated the talks. Meanwhile, Russia was assuring Azerbaijan that it would protect Baku’s interests should Turkey restore ties with Armenia. Thirdly, Russia has continued its consolidation politically, economically and socially inside of Armenia.Bu yazı ( 606 ) - dəfə oxunmuşdur
